Visit to The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Our last visit in 2025 was to WIIW. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies is one of the principle centres for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with worldwide recognition.
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic Studies - wiiw - is one of the principal centres for
research on Central, East and Southeast Europe with 50 years of experience.
Over the years the Institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its
regional coverage - to European integration, the countries of wider Europe and
selected issues of the global economy - and expanding the research areas its
staff works on. WIIW has a team of highly skilled professionals, most of whom
are multilingual and have an intimate knowledge of the region. Its economists
and statisticians are often native to and permanently in close contact with
institutions, researchers and policy makers in the countries they cover.
We were received by
the Deputy Director of WIIW, Richard Grieverson, who gave us a "Presentation
and outlook of the economic situation for Austria, CEE/SEE countries".
After a short presentation
of the activities of WIIW Deputy Director Grieveson in his
Power Point Presentation "Hardening Fault Lines" emphasized
the CEE/SEE's changing growth model in an age of fragmentation, political
tensions and military activities raising risks and uncertainties. This led to a
decline of FDI. But the economic development was still stable. He pointed to
the weak growth of the German industry having a negative impact on the CEE/SEE
countries and welcomed the bold action of the current German government for
higher spending including defense and infrastructure, hoping for a positive
effect on the CEE/SEE countries closely linked to the German industry. The
economic forecast for 2026 is especially positive for Poland, the Western
Balkans, Ukraine and Turkey. Companies seem optimistic. The markets of the
region experience still real wage growth and consumer confidence. Inflation is
normalizing. Cost pressures, labour shortages and EU funds drawdown should
drive investment in 2026. In Poland, Czechia and Croatia investment will be
driven especially by capacity increases. Especially in Poland labour-saving
automation investment is considered likely to be very strong in 2026. Further
demographic pressure in a positive scenario should lead to more automation and
shift up value chain. In a negative scenarion permanently lower growht may be
the consequence. Most CEE/SEE countries are not planning for big fiscal
consolidation over the next two years and most new defense spending does not
create additional fiscal pressure. The bond market is calm. But if sentiment
changes big spending cuts will be necessary for some, with Poland and Slovakia
most at risk. Overall within EU-CEE Romania faces biggest challenges, but
Slovakia, Hungary and Poland also could have troubles.
Main risks are: labour
market frictions, fiscal pressures, Russian hybrid warfare, US economic policy,
Ukraine war fallout and energy prices. Main opportunities: defense spillover,
near shoring, EU funds, green transition/energy diversification, Ukraine
reconstruction including investment opportunities.
The presentation was
followed by a lively Q&A session ending in individual discussions with
refreshments and snacks.
Richard
Grieveson is Deputy Director at the Vienna Institute
for International Economic Studies (wiiw) and a member of the Balkans in Europe
Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG). He coordinates wiiw’s analysis and forecasting
of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In addition he works on European policy
analysis, European integration, EU enlargement, economic history, and political
economy. He holds degrees from the universities of Cambridge, Vienna and
Birkbeck. Previously he worked as a Director in the Emerging Europe Sovereigns
team at Fitch Ratings and Regional Manager in the Europe team at the Economist
Intelligence Unit.
His comprehensive scientific publications are listed
on the website of the WIIW.
